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MTPD
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Posted: 11/29/2012 11:25:57 AM
[Last Edit: 11/30/2012 8:21:43 AM by MTPD]

THE IMAGE ABOVE IS A PAID ADVERTISEMENT
After reading numerous posts here I'm curious what you good folks think the EVENT PROBABILITY is for the following happening in the near future (ie, in the next 10 years):

(1) RACE RIOTS (many cities involved simultaneously)

(2) EMP ATTACK

(3) MANDATORY INCARCERATION IN FEMA RELOCATION/RE-EDUCATION CAMPS FOR "NONCONFORMING INDIVIDUALS"

(4) GUN CONFISCATION BY .GOV

(5) DOLLAR DEVALUED

Rate each type of EVENT PROBABILITY on a scale of 0-10 where zero means you think it will never happen, ten means you think it is an absolute certainty and a five means you don't know = maybe yes, maybe no.



KeithC
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Posted: 11/29/2012 11:54:50 AM
[Last Edit: 11/29/2012 11:55:15 AM by KeithC]
1. Any riot is massive if you're in the middle of it. Moreso if you you are the 'x' in "Kill 'x'!" That being said, I'd give it a 0.1 where I live and work and perhaps a 3.5 in densely populated urban areas like NYC or LA. Much of that would be dependent upon a trigger event like Rodney King and/or entitlement bribes ceasing.

2. I am too ignorant of the technology to accurately respond to this. If I had to guess and "race riots in LA" was a 3.5, I'd say perhaps a 1.

3. 0. It's just silly. If "they" were going to do that, they'd just say your house was a meth lab and lock you up in a regular prison. When they use force, they lose their greatest tool - the lie that they're "the good guys". Better to make you look like a socially-identified scumbag, at which point no one cares what happens to you.

4. I'd give it a 2. Confiscation leads to resistance, same reason as I don't buy the forced relocation crap. They may illegalize an entire class of firearms ("for the children" or some such shit) and then require turn-ins. If you don't, they'll ignore you until you show up at the range, at which point the guy running the place (or the Fudd next to you) will happily do their civic duty and call the cops. If you never go anywhere but do something else illegal, they'll find the gun and use it to tack on more jail time.

5. I'd actually go with a solid 6. I'm talking a la Argentina, not just massive taxation or further poor policy-making lowering our buying abilities. Those last two get 8-9s from me.
MTPD
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Posted: 11/29/2012 12:18:46 PM
[Last Edit: 11/30/2012 8:25:25 AM by MTPD]
If not these kinds of things, I'm curious what you preppers are prepping for?
EXPY37
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Posted: 11/29/2012 12:34:48 PM
Witch one would go best with the most tacticool outfit???






TaylorWSO
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Posted: 11/29/2012 12:36:17 PM
[Last Edit: 11/29/2012 12:37:03 PM by TaylorWSO]

Originally Posted By MTPD:
60-some views and only one post/reply? Maybe you guys aren't really into potential survival events after all?

or maybe most dont live in a retarded fantasy world

eta


the overuse of MASSIVE is cute though
Anything is possible, everything is temporary
vm1970
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Posted: 11/29/2012 12:41:45 PM
Originally Posted By MTPD:
After reading numerous posts here I'm curious what you good folks think the EVENT PROBABILITY is for the following happening in the near future (ie, in the next 10 years):

(1) MASSIVE "KILL WHITEY" RACE RIOTS (many cities involved simultaneously) 0

(2) MASSIVE EMP ATTACK 0

(3) MANDATORY INCARCERATION IN FEMA RELOCATION/RE-EDUCATION CAMPS FOR "NONCONFORMING INDIVIDUALISTS" 0

(4) MASSIVE GUN CONFISCATION BY .GOV 0

(5) DOLLAR DEVALUED 5

Rate each type of EVENT PROBABILITY on a scale of 0-10 where zero means you think it will never happen, ten means you think it is an absolute certainty and a five means you don't know = maybe yes, maybe no.





"We are playing chess here motherfucker not checkers."
R2point0
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Posted: 11/29/2012 12:46:27 PM
[Last Edit: 11/29/2012 12:50:39 PM by R2point0]
Originally Posted By KeithC:
1. Any riot is massive if you're in the middle of it. Moreso if you you are the 'x' in "Kill 'x'!" That being said, I'd give it a 0.1 where I live and work and perhaps a 3.5 in densely populated urban areas like NYC or LA. Much of that would be dependent upon a trigger event like Rodney King and/or entitlement bribes ceasing.

2. I am too ignorant of the technology to accurately respond to this. If I had to guess and "race riots in LA" was a 3.5, I'd say perhaps a 1.

3. 0. It's just silly. If "they" were going to do that, they'd just say your house was a meth lab and lock you up in a regular prison. When they use force, they lose their greatest tool - the lie that they're "the good guys". Better to make you look like a socially-identified scumbag, at which point no one cares what happens to you.

4. I'd give it a 2. Confiscation leads to resistance, same reason as I don't buy the forced relocation crap. They may illegalize an entire class of firearms ("for the children" or some such shit) and then require turn-ins. If you don't, they'll ignore you until you show up at the range, at which point the guy running the place (or the Fudd next to you) will happily do their civic duty and call the cops. If you never go anywhere but do something else illegal, they'll find the gun and use it to tack on more jail time.

5. I'd actually go with a solid 6. I'm talking a la Argentina, not just massive taxation or further poor policy-making lowering our buying abilities. Those last two get 8-9s from me.


Are those in percent or "out of 10"? Whoops, RIF.

And about .00001 for the first 4, and 10 for the last - it's already happening.

And "Doomsday Prepers" called - they want to interview you.
"As God is my witness, I though turkeys could fly." A. Carlson
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Posted: 11/29/2012 12:48:36 PM
[Last Edit: 11/29/2012 12:50:30 PM by majorhavoc]
1, 3 and 4 are firmly rooted in the tinfoil hat category. Scenario #2 is remote but plausable. Scenario number 5 is a real possibility.

To even seriously discuss scenarios 1, 3 and 4 is a strong indication you really need to get out more.
Ken914
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Posted: 11/29/2012 12:49:56 PM
Were you going to make it a poll?
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ataris121
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Posted: 11/29/2012 12:53:48 PM
Originally Posted By MTPD:
After reading numerous posts here I'm curious what you good folks think the EVENT PROBABILITY is for the following happening in the near future (ie, in the next 10 years):

(1) MASSIVE "KILL WHITEY" RACE RIOTS (many cities involved simultaneously) (4)

(2) MASSIVE EMP ATTACK 5 But ill lump in any Tech based disaster/attack

(3) MANDATORY INCARCERATION IN FEMA RELOCATION/RE-EDUCATION CAMPS FOR "NONCONFORMING INDIVIDUALISTS" 2

(4) MASSIVE GUN CONFISCATION BY .GOV 8 or at least a actual attempt

(5) DOLLAR DEVALUED 11 +1 for happening now

Rate each type of EVENT PROBABILITY on a scale of 0-10 where zero means you think it will never happen, ten means you think it is an absolute certainty and a five means you don't know = maybe yes, maybe no.





Forest
6.8 > 6.5
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Posted: 11/29/2012 12:55:03 PM
Originally Posted By MTPD:
(1) MASSIVE "KILL WHITEY" RACE RIOTS (many cities involved simultaneously)

Low to nill - O won (0)

(2) MASSIVE EMP ATTACK

Nil - see my previous posts on the subject. (0)

(3) MANDATORY INCARCERATION IN FEMA RELOCATION/RE-EDUCATION CAMPS FOR "NONCONFORMING INDIVIDUALISTS"

Nil - and take off the tin foil. (0)

(4) MASSIVE GUN CONFISCATION BY .GOV

Nil - we've won some major self defense victories over the last decade - including the last 4 years. They are not likely to go all Austrailia on us. (0)


(5) DOLLAR DEVALUED

Already occuring - so I rater this as high to 'ongoing' .(9-10)


'97 Jeep XJ Owner, former '98 XJ Owner

"Free thinking is great.. that's how the Assault wheelbarrow with silenced .22 rifle was born..." Harv24
Spartikis
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Posted: 11/29/2012 12:56:12 PM
[Last Edit: 11/29/2012 12:58:49 PM by Spartikis]
(1) MASSIVE "KILL WHITEY" RACE RIOTS
I would say chance of 1. The racial break down is roughly 65% white, Latino 16%, Black 13%, Asian 5. Most racial riots will be on a small scale.

(2) MASSIVE EMP ATTACK
I would say chance of 1. So far there has been no confirmed EMP attack yet, its a neat idea but until we see this happen even on a small scale i wouldn't worry about all of society getting whipped out by this for of attack.

(3) MANDATORY INCARCERATION IN FEMA RELOCATION/RE-EDUCATION CAMPS FOR "NONCONFORMING INDIVIDUALISTS"
I would say chance of 1. This isnt 1940 nazi german where the government can secretly make neighborhoods of jews or other undesirable people disappear. internet, tv, radio, cell phones, transportation and much more make information spread quickly, plus firearm ownership would reduce this as the police or law doing it wouldnt risk their lives, in german the SS knew the people they were rounding up wouldn't resist, if they knew 1 out of every 10 ppl they were rounding up had a gun they might of been less willing.

(4) MASSIVE GUN CONFISCATION BY .GOV
I would say chance of 3. Could happen but but i think they know better than to out right confiscate them, it will basically start a civil war. If the gov has half a brain they will take away our gun rights slowly...like they have been doing over the last 100 years.

(5) DOLLAR DEVALUED
I would say chance of 10. This is actually happening, not on a scale of hyperinflation yet, atleast not in the US. This also doesnt require a evil group for this to happen. For example, a city or state runs up massive debt to pay for public programs or other needs. Their was no ill intention, actually the opposite, they had good intentions, they wanted to improve society, feed the hungry, give to the poor, create jobs, but their lack of knowledge and inability to say no to government spending causes massive debt and they need to be bailed out by the federal gov who has to print money as they are in debt themselves.


So the real question should be...."What happens when the dollar collapses?"
Because of hyperinflation and a collapse of the economy you often see riots, increased government controls and restrictions and hostility from foreign nations.
Rodent
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Posted: 11/29/2012 12:58:21 PM
Originally Posted By MTPD:

(1) RACE RIOTS - they've already happened. I lived in Detroit in 1967, I watched the LA riots on TV, and I was in London when the "hooded youths" ran amok this year.

(2) EMP ATTACK - I think the threat is overrated.

(3) MANDATORY INCARCERATION IN FEMA RELOCATION/RE-EDUCATION CAMPS - I can smell this one coming. Not in the very near future, but maybe in our lifetimes.

(4) GUN CONFISCATION - many of our leaders are just waiting for an opportunity.

(5) DOLLAR DEVALUED - Do you know what "monetizing debt" and "quantitative easing" mean? Have you been to a grocery store lately?

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Posted: 11/29/2012 1:02:59 PM
I think some natural disaster that impacts the power grid is much more likely to cause bigger problems than any of the things listed in the OP.


Speed


"You'll rue the day you take on the extreme Speed" Acman, TN, OHV campout 2007
sandblaster
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Posted: 11/29/2012 1:07:45 PM
Nothing is going to happen....that is all.
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MTPD
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Posted: 11/29/2012 1:14:10 PM
[Last Edit: 11/30/2012 8:39:02 AM by MTPD]
I'm not a prepper or a survivalist (just a Hist/PolySci guy) but here's my take on the questions based on a history based extension of current events.

EMP Attack = 8: Iran has already practiced launching an EMP Nuke attack on the USA from a ship off shore. All that awaits is completion of their first nuke, which will be soon unless prevented by USA/Israel military intervention. (NOTE: An EMP expert on the Military Channel a few days ago said he considered the probabibility of an EMP attack to be an 8 out of 10.)

DOLLAR DEVALUED = 8.

Race Riots = 5.

Gun Confiscation = 10.

FEMA = 5.

Hopefully none will happen, but they all could.
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Posted: 11/29/2012 1:20:08 PM
Originally Posted By MTPD:

(1) MASSIVE "KILL WHITEY" RACE RIOTS (many cities involved simultaneously): 2

(2) MASSIVE EMP ATTACK: 0

(3) MANDATORY INCARCERATION IN FEMA RELOCATION/RE-EDUCATION CAMPS FOR "NONCONFORMING INDIVIDUALISTS": 10 (but change premise to: Criminalization of nonconformance, and the widespread marginalization of values and ideals once central to American life.) I believe most people will conform.

(4) MASSIVE GUN CONFISCATION BY .GOV: 10

(5) DOLLAR DEVALUED: 10



Forest
6.8 > 6.5
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Posted: 11/29/2012 1:45:04 PM
[Last Edit: 11/29/2012 1:45:50 PM by Forest]
Originally Posted By MTPD:
EMP Attack = 8: Iran has already written about and practiced launching an EMP Nuke attack on the USA from a ship off shore. All that awaits is completion of their first nuke, which will be quite soon unless prevented by military intervention. (NOTE: I saw an EMP military expert on the Military Channel a few days ago stating he considered the probabibility of a near term EMP attack to be an 8.)

Delusional (both you and the guy you saw - remember he may be pushing for funding of his pet program). Iran has no viable nuke, and their missles are crappy at best. To have them park a ship offshore and suddenly put a missle in the right place and with enough power for a massive EMP is zero chance. Even assuming they did get such a launch Iran would be a glowing hole soon after.

DOLLAR DEVALUED = 8. This is the #1 traditional way for governments to steal $$$ from citizens in order to pay off massive government debt. Since the present admin in DC shows no inclination to stop its reckless spending an eventual devaluation is likely.
If not an actual devaluation, something similar that has the same result will be tried.

Agreed.

Race Riots = 5. Not sure. I worked several major race riots as a street cop so I know how easy it is to get them started. All thats needed is a "Green Light" from their leaders.

Race riots have occured - generally after specific racially oriented incidents and generally on a 'small scale' (nationally - locally it may seem like a big scale). Even the "Massive" riots after MLK's assasination only effected a relative few municipalities. It would suck living in those areas but to 95% of the US it would just be news on the TV.

Gun Confiscation = 10. The Dems are right now planning the "how to" of confiscation. Maybe via the UN, maybe some other way. But a Demo-backed attempt at confiscation of all "NON-SPORTING" firearms is a certainty. The current definition includes (but is not limited to) any and all firearms ever used by the military or police (and look-a-likes) = "non-sporting".

LOL. A few dems wanting to do it is a far cry from a guaranteed Constitutional violation going through both houses before it get's to O. Not going to happen.

FEMA = 5. Many of the camps are already built. Whether they are ever filled or not depends on other factors, including some mentioned above.

LOL - not sure if serious. If serious remove the tinfoil and go out and get some fresh air.
'97 Jeep XJ Owner, former '98 XJ Owner

"Free thinking is great.. that's how the Assault wheelbarrow with silenced .22 rifle was born..." Harv24
Tight-group
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Posted: 11/29/2012 1:45:50 PM
I say # 5 then you can escalate the violence and killing from there, They can accomlish their
population reduction plan and expend minimum effort, for sure if they get some of those armed drones
overhead.
MTPD
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Posted: 11/29/2012 1:57:22 PM
[Last Edit: 11/30/2012 10:23:38 AM by MTPD]
@Forest

My asking you to rate the probility factor between zero and ten was sort of a trick. Nothing listed is a zero in reality. All of them have at least some chance of happening sometime in the future. A "ZERO" is something that can never happen = a Zombie invasion or a massive Vampire attack. LOL!
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Posted: 11/29/2012 1:57:33 PM
[Last Edit: 11/29/2012 1:59:58 PM by BDinNC]
OP forgot to include MASSIVE ALIEN INVASION on the list, which I would put as equally likely as some of the listed scenarios.

In all seriousness, everything in the history of human civilization is cyclical. If you want to know what the future looks like, look to the past. Prepare so that you are ready when some idiot or idiots come along and do the same thing all over again. It can't be prevented.

Hell, an asteroid or comet could be headed our way right now (that is probability you CAN actually calculate...you could say there IS one heading toward us RIGHT NOW, it's happened over and over again throughout the planet's history). Who is going to survive that? My guess is the elite ruling class that have access to hardened facilities with long-term survival protocols in place. Everyone else is screwed. Those are the people that rebuild. I wonder what that society looks like 20, 40, 60 years after the event...

The difference is that somehow, some way, we come out of it on the other side, and we (humans) have been a little better off every time. That obviously doesn't guarantee the survival or prosperity of you, your family, your community, country, and so on, but as a species we continue to keep on keepin' on.

Forest
6.8 > 6.5
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Posted: 11/29/2012 2:02:38 PM
Originally Posted By MTPD:
@Forest

My asking you to rate the probility factor between zero and ten was sort of a trick. Nothing listed is a zero in reality theoretically.

FIFY

there is a difference between 'theoretical' and probable and with probablity being so low it's effectively zero (meaning you're more likely to survive 5 lighting strikes after winning the powerball lottery 3 weeks in a row).

and "probably" will happen.

"Probably?" LOL - highly unlikely ANY of them (other than the dollar devaluation) will occur.


'97 Jeep XJ Owner, former '98 XJ Owner

"Free thinking is great.. that's how the Assault wheelbarrow with silenced .22 rifle was born..." Harv24
DJinGA
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Posted: 11/29/2012 2:12:02 PM
Originally Posted By MTPD:
@Forest

My asking you to rate the probility factor between zero and ten was sort of a trick. Nothing listed is a zero in reality. All of them can and "probably" will happen.


How about any of 1-4 happen in 2013, and I'll mail you $100.

If none happen, you mail me $100.

Dollar has been devaluing for years now, so that point is moot.
Elections have consequences.
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Posted: 11/29/2012 2:33:17 PM
[Last Edit: 11/29/2012 2:35:50 PM by wshbrngr]
Originally Posted By TaylorWSO:

Originally Posted By MTPD:
60-some views and only one post/reply? Maybe you guys aren't really into potential survival events after all?

or maybe most dont live in a retarded fantasy world

eta


the overuse of MASSIVE is cute though

I gotta go with this...
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Posted: 11/29/2012 3:00:29 PM
1 - 0%
2 - 0%
3 - 0%
4 - 0%
5 - 100%. but the market will do it rather than an official government action, unless you count Quantitative Easing which is exactly what that was.
Hitler had nothing on us: 4 million abandoned animals euthanized every year. Spay. Neuter. Rescue.
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Posted: 11/29/2012 3:16:15 PM
[Last Edit: 11/29/2012 3:19:38 PM by SigOwner_P229]
Originally Posted By MTPD:
60-some views and only one post/reply? Maybe you guys aren't really into potential survival events after all?


First of all, I mostly agree with the 1st response... at least in the same ball-park except the last one where I'm confident it's already in the works...

2nd of all, many of gears our preps for more likely suvival events like debilitating injury, job loss, house-fire, natural disaster etc. While I do think there is a remote possibility of something major going down, I don't think it's likely. I do, however, think it's very likely that at some point in my life I will be affected by one of the above "more likely events" in one way or another. I prepare for the most likely event first, and the least-likely last. In my area, the only one on the OP's list that I even consider as likely is the last one (devaluation of our currency and poor policy-making by the buffoons in washington).
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