1) Race riots in more then 2 cities 10%
2)EMP High altitude Nuclear EMP 0.1% Beyond the reach of terrorists, and act of war by a nation state
3) FEMA camps 0% and just plain stupid.  if we ever got a totalitarian governemnt that did stuff like this, it would be under the guise of some acceptable organization (mental health or education, or some political  paramilitary force.  But I'm well aware the government has a warehouse near a railroad track with a 3" gas line.
4) Gun Confgisication by federal governemnt 0%.  They won't actually confisicate legally owned firearms,   In the long term they wouldn't need to.
5) Intentional active devaluation of the dollar- 50%  it would reduce debt (as a precentage of GDP or tax reciepts), and make american exports more competitive.  If we were close to energy independant, I wouldn't complain much.  With our dependancy on foreign oil and gas, it would be very painful

Agreed.  We saw it a month ago on the east coast with Sandy.

My in-laws saw it a few years ago in rural Nebraska when an ice storm knocked out power to the entire town for several weeks.  They were on personal generator power for about 2 weeks, 4 weeks on municipal backup generator power.  They said it took six weeks for the power company to fix the power lines leading into town.  

Folks in Los Angeles, Miami, Nebraska, Alaska, and Denver will all prepare differently.  The family of 4 earning $40k/yr will prepare differently from the empty-nesters earning $125k/yr.

In order-

3
1
4
6
10

We live in a very strange time.

Gun confiscation would be next to impossible. It would require going house to house and would only happen if FEMA camps are being filled. So 3 and 4 would go hand in hand. Of course all that will be triggered by #5 which is well on its way.

Yes I did, that was my point.  
Something to keep in mind OP is that some people find it insulting when you try to use that kind of condescending, reverse psychology instead of just asking a question.  
Also, some of us are not fooled by it.

If we're talking "doomsday scenarios", I say global pandemic FTW! It is a scientific certainty, sooner or later. I'd like to think I could hunker down at the house for many weeks and wait out the worst of it.

But in reality, what I prep for, what I see already beginning, is the slow but inevitable deterioration of what was once the mightiest nation on Earth into some sort of impoverished third world banana republic.

Call it a "Balkanized Somalia", only more racially diverse.

1) Race Riots: 7 - I think this probably will happen sometime in the next 10 years.  Primarily affected will be the Urban centers in the North and Northeast, with possibly some smaller outbreaks in heavily populated areas in Texas and Florida.  Here in central Arkansas (over half an hour north of Little Rock metro) I anticipate little affect to me personally, but some minor inconvenience for those who have to commute into Little Rock is possible.  If things get really bad, then Pine Bluff will be the worst (or will continue to be the worst) hit in the state.  Overall, I'd say that Arkansas will be a fairly safe place in this instance since so much of the population is rural and even the urbanites are largely disaffected and unconcerned with the rest of the world.

2) EMP Attack: 2 - Very unlikely in the next 10 years.  Any attack will be localized and centered on a major urban center like New York or D.C.  Mass attack(s) that affect large sections of the country seem even less likely to me, I just don't think the technology is there.  Delivery systems are limited to stuff like high altitude nukes, which I think is the Worst Possible Case.  I don't think there is a country with the proper alchemical mixture of Balls, Technology, and Insanity that would be required to launch such an attack on the US.

3) FEMA Relocation: 1 - This would (I hope!) result in widespread panic and rioting, I seriously think that not even The One could get away with this without shedding a lot of blood.  There would (or should) be resistance in every state, as well as from within any agency called upon to conduct such activities.  Absolutely unacceptable and would result in myself and (I hope) millions of others taking immediate action.

4) Gun confiscation: 3 - Registration is pretty likely within the next 10 years, but confiscation will have to be done locally and only in time of crisis as per the model we saw during Katrina.  Unlikely to reach me personally, and I highly doubt it would be tolerated anywhere in my state.  Trying to do a mass confiscation on the federal level will end up with a lot of people dead.

5) Dollar Devaluation/Hyper-Inflation: 8 - Most likely of the bunch, but I'm not an economist.  Monetizing the debt and "quantitative easing" have to result in inflation at some point and I think the longer we hold it off the worse it will get.  I think this is probably going to be the thing that gets us.  Once food and gas prices get high enough, you are pretty much guaranteed widespread protests, which will lead to riots, which could conceivably lead to all the other items on your list.  I anticipate a similar pattern as previous.  Major population centers go to hell pretty quickly, while Southern and Midwestern states carry on as usual until the power goes out.  Mass confusion ensues. Over half the population will be helpless, begging the government to save them, which will of course result in disastrous consequences on the political level.  Preppers laugh as the world burns.  New political landscape emerges, preppers deemed dangerous individualists and then we see Ruby Ridge about a thousand times as evil, militaristic survivalists are wiped out for the good of the nation.

Yeah it sucks.

But a HIGHLY PREDICTABLE one...

As long as it all doesn't occur during Russia's worst wheat harvest in fifty-five years, we should be okay.

lol

This country has already seen race riots - in the somewhat recent past there were the Rodney King riots in LA and Crown Heights riots in NY.  

I don't think the country has moved on to a better place since those events.  If anything, we've become more divided.

Losing my job and not being able to find work.

Living without electricity.

Food shortages

On a scale of 1 to 10:

1.  3
2.  2
3.  1
4.  1
5.  10

shit dude you forgot zombies and multicam'd unicorns that are heing ridden by the "greys" who invade on 12/21/12 trying to eat us.....



 

Were fucked I knew it :(


Damn kifaru wearing greys are behind it all....

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile

Anyone changed their thoughts on #4 at this point?

I think that "race riots" should be renamed to "food and free shit riots". All races of soldiers in the FSA are going to riot when the free shit stops coming.

Don't you mean the Free Shit MAJORITY?????????

What folks may not realize, is the likelyhood that the Free Shit, WILL CONTINUE to flow...

While the folks STEALING our country by --------ENGINEERING...

...THE DESTRUCTION OF THE MIDDLE CLASS...

STILL NEED  the votes of the FSM to continue their brilliant strategy of a scorched earth policy across every one of our institutions: social, political, economic, -and now the coupedagracie, the MILITARY!

Once the Constitution and the .mil is firmly in our new Masters' control...

What use do they have for the once, Free Shit Army????

I'll tell you right here and now, our Masters aren't gonna waste $$$ buying shit like beer, flatscreens and Escalades and crack, for a bunch of loafers who don't want to work 12 hrs a day.

When they can KEEP IT ALL FOR THEMSELVES!  

Like Castro said after his Glorious Revolution...

"Once I won the revolution, who needs revolutionaries?"  



Or all of the [us] Useful Idiots?

Soooo, from this you should be able to figger out what's in store for many of us and our famlies.



[Unless you have your head in the sand, or firmly planted up where the sun don't shine]

[Oh wait...]

omg omg omg, yes





we are all going to die in a massive civil war when they take our guns



omg omg omg omg omg omg

 

Not quiote that dramatic....

but now that I have seen what is being proposed,
if some of that stuff passes,
I could see it happening eventually.

more now than I would have thought a couple of months ago.

I would not rate it as a 0% chance as some have.

Super volcano. The ash would fuck everything up, especially the fragile and outdated power grid.

Race riots (or any riot) is dependent on high population densities - so, inner city or tight suburbs. The mob needs targets within reasonable walking distance to vent its rage on and loot... which keeps things pretty close to their own homes. A city wide riot ala Detroit is actually a hundred little hot spots. Police are not equipped to take down dozens of people at a time - they try to keep their numerical advantage to 3 to 1 if not higher and obviously even a large force can't sustain that many boots on the ground for long....so....they tend to just pull back, defend key points (hospitals, key businesses, electricity, etc) and then let the looters burn themselves out.

On day 3 the government rolls in with heavy reinforcements who've slept that night before - while the initial, and thus deadly looters are still hung over, tired, and settled down from mayhem and now counting their trophies etc.

So sheltering in place (hiding) is the best thing for a tight spot. This isn't going to be a nation-wide race war unless it's organized by higher authorities.

EMP... Russia or China are our only threats... but so is a Coronal Mass Ejection.

The social compact is a robust thing and yet once it starts to crack it tends to shatter. Remember the odds that police like? A lone shooter holding hostages will bring down 100 cops to surround the whole multi-block area. That's 100 to 1. A no-knock SWATTING wil bring maybe 40 guys out plus an APC and a dozen vehicles to go after less than 10 people asleep in a house.

But if a nation-wide, multi-week event is going on involving tens of thousands of agents and armored cars, helicopters etc. it's doubtful they'll get every truly dangerous to be cornered otherwise law abiding citizen asleep at the switch when they arrive on week 2...I shudder to think what might happen. Because let's face it.... we NEED police. In any given population of 100,000 people, you can bet about 2-4,000 of them will be criminals, sex pervs, on probation, etc. and hence, those 96,000 people need a viable, local police force that's not all shot to hell by the local ad hoc self-defense force or single group of war buddies who'll not surrender their only viable means of self-defense..... IOW...I see how a nation-wide confiscation could be launched....but I don't see how it could be sustained long enough to truly collect large numbers of weapons and fill camps to capacity.

If 2-3 teams of guys decided to fight back any town, city or state could see an invasion set up... but media black out notwiththstanding you can't hide that much traffic flowing to a place.... and the idea will catch on...when it does, all hell breaks loose as people run the numbers and realize that there's simply no way "the man" can muster the sheer numbers needed to simultaneously defend the tens of thousands of key positions they need to....and commit heavily armored task forces to continue the round ups.

UAVs, drones, helos with hell fires.... yeah, all impressive. But look at the map, run some numbers and pretty soon you realize that the USA has 100x more targets than the .mil has munitions in their stockpiles... eventually the gov would literally run out of their whiz-bang stuff that we casually cheer when used on the Taliban. Plus only a foolish gov. would not keep the lion's share back in reserve for world contingencies (cough) China (cough). If all hell breaks lose those drones won't know which pick up truck is full of "bad guys" and which is full of a family on a picnic or a church group. Or business.

And NSA? People will drop their smart phones, unhook from the internet or suddenly take to watching youtube cooking videos only. Radio intel will go silent. And no one is going to go tramping around in the woods with long rifles or bunched up - we've all seen the same videos of what happens.

So.... yeah it could start but it wouldn't end up with us all dead or in camps. Many of us perhaps, but not all of us - and then society at large collapses since who will risk the interstates? Rail is vulnerable. The grid and pipelines too. The whole country endures and exists because of the social compact and trust...without trust and general sense of fairplay, moral restraint, sense of legal = moral and gov = moral authority...... the nation simply would come unglued except where order can be directly enforced - which is precious few places but at a huge cost.

Those would-be napoleons who dream of a police state where they can finally get their utopian dreams accomplished are utter fools.