AR15.Com Archives
 M5.4 X class flare just popped
NUCdt04  [Team Member]
3/6/2012 8:35:35 PM
http://www.solarham.com/
stanprophet09  [Team Member]
3/6/2012 8:40:34 PM


That is a big flare, the CME on that will be interesting.

ETA:

NUCdt04  [Team Member]
3/6/2012 8:42:31 PM

Originally Posted By stanprophet09:


That is a big flare, the CME on that will be interesting.

ETA:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Xray.gif

biggest of 24 so far
HomeSlice  [Team Member]
3/6/2012 8:49:45 PM
Any reason to keep our gear unplugged for this kind of stuff?

stanprophet09  [Team Member]
3/6/2012 8:52:47 PM
Yes

When the CME hits us in 36-48 hours it might not be a good time to have your antenna plugged in, that is if it hits us.
pcsutton  [Team Member]
3/6/2012 9:52:45 PM
1429 is a big bitch, huh?
HomeSlice  [Team Member]
3/6/2012 10:11:19 PM

Originally Posted By stanprophet09:
Yes

When the CME hits us in 36-48 hours it might not be a good time to have your antenna plugged in, that is if it hits us.

Thanks for the heads-up

Beefington  [Member]
3/6/2012 10:13:25 PM
and my radio is 3000 miles away
NUCdt04  [Team Member]
3/7/2012 11:16:25 AM
just a heads up for tomorrow - looks like the CME is Earthbound




Latest Solar News and Updates
Incoming Full Halo-CME / Geo+Radiation Storm
X5.4 Solar Flare

3/7/2012 by Kevin VE3EN at 14:30 UTC
Comment on Message Board



Updated 3/7/2012 @ 14:30 UTC
Incoming
Incoming! The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction is calling for an almost direct CME impact during the middle of tomorrow (March 8). The solar wind is expected to increase to over 800 km/s and Strong Geomagnetic Storming will be possible. This plasma cloud is the result of the X5.4 and X1.3 Solar Flare event very early this morning. in the new movie below, you can see that the plasma cloud is Full_Halo and heading this way. Click HERE to watch the latest model run.




joemama74  [Team Member]
3/7/2012 11:51:14 AM
So what does this mean?

Will my microwave oven still heat up my hot pocket sandwiches tomorrow?

Or should I just leave them outside on the sidewalk?
KB7DX  [Team Member]
3/7/2012 11:54:43 AM
Originally Posted By joemama74:
So what does this mean?

Will my microwave oven still heat up my hot pocket sandwiches tomorrow?

Or should I just leave them outside on the sidewalk?

Make sure to put them on some foil to crisp the underside too.
The next couple of days should be interesting.

NUCdt04  [Team Member]
3/7/2012 12:44:35 PM
I have my HF antenna unplugged



and I'm sitting on 2m simplex calling freq hoping for some prop...... of course this would work better with a 6M/2M SSB rig..... :(


maybe I'll fab up a CB antenna mount and jump on 10m
SCWolverine  [Team Member]
3/7/2012 2:00:29 PM
AP News Story

"The largest solar flare in five years is racing toward Earth, threatening to unleash a torrent of charged particles that could disrupt power grids, GPS and airplane flights.

The sun erupted Tuesday evening, and the effects should start smacking Earth around 7 a.m. EST Thursday, according to forecasters at the federal government's Space Weather Prediction Center. They say the flare is growing as it speeds outward from the sun.

"It's hitting us right in the nose," said Joe Kunches, a scientist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. He called it the sun's version of "Super Tuesday."
mylt1  [Member]
3/7/2012 4:47:44 PM
Originally Posted By NUCdt04:
I have my HF antenna unplugged



and I'm sitting on 2m simplex calling freq hoping for some prop...... of course this would work better with a 6M/2M SSB rig..... :(


maybe I'll fab up a CB antenna mount and jump on 10m


a little trick i learned last year or so, check your local radar. if there is a lot of ground clutter then prop is up and you can usually work quite a distance on 2m even on FM.
Beefington  [Member]
3/7/2012 10:29:37 PM
I wonder if this will intensify the aurora borealis. Again, what a perfect time to be out of town
NUCdt04  [Team Member]
3/7/2012 10:36:13 PM

Originally Posted By Beefington:
I wonder if this will intensify the aurora borealis. Again, what a perfect time to be out of town

doh


yes it should push the aurora down to mid-lats they're saying.... if I were up north and out of the city I'd be able to see them I bet
Jiro  [Team Member]
3/7/2012 11:11:10 PM
Originally Posted By NUCdt04:

Originally Posted By Beefington:
I wonder if this will intensify the aurora borealis. Again, what a perfect time to be out of town

doh


yes it should push the aurora down to mid-lats they're saying.... if I were up north and out of the city I'd be able to see them I bet


Good info here for mid and high latitude probabilities and current auroral oval (curr offline):

http://www.spaceweather.com/

stanprophet09  [Team Member]
3/7/2012 11:31:43 PM
They are saying to keep an eye out at ALL latitudes. I guess you never know how bad it is going to be.
zukguy  [Member]
3/8/2012 12:51:40 AM
So anyone wanna guess if we get damage from this or not? Thanks for all the info and time guys/gals.

Zuk
HomeSlice  [Team Member]
3/8/2012 2:27:01 AM
My guess is no, but my HF antennas are unplugged just in case.

Sounds like a good question for OP to add as a poll. I love polls...
stanprophet09  [Team Member]
3/8/2012 2:29:11 AM
Originally Posted By zukguy:
So anyone wanna guess if we get damage from this or not? Thanks for all the info and time guys/gals.

Zuk


2 Bans and a lock

2012-03-08 03:18 UTC Solar Radiation Storm Continues, Geomagnetic Storming Expected

The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) is forecast to pass ACE early morning UTC on March 8 (start of day EST March 8). Geomagnetic storm periods reaching the G3 (Strong) level are likely as a result. Additionally, the Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above the S3 (Strong) threshold at this time. Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible. Updates here as conditions warrant.


G3 Strong: Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.

Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.


S3 Strong: Biological: radiation hazard avoidance recommended for astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.***

Satellite operations: single-event upsets, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panel are likely.

Other systems: degraded HF radio propagation through the polar regions and navigation position errors likely.


I doubt anything, but I would not keep an antenna hooked up unless you have something to bleed the static off of it.
SCWolverine  [Team Member]
3/8/2012 7:49:03 AM


NASA Warns: Possible Infrastructure Disruptions From Solar Flare
NewsEmergency.com Critical News, Weather & Alerts

Obtained from The National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASA

NASA models using data from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and the Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) have now provided more information about the two Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) associated with the two March 6 flares.

Such a CME could result in a severe geomagnetic storm, causing aurora at low latitudes,
with possible disruption to:

- high frequency radio communication
- global positioning systems (GPS)
- power grids.

The models also predict that the leading edge of the first CME will reach Earth at about 1:25 AM EST on the morning of March 8 (plus or minus 7 hours) and the event may last 3 days.

The first CME is traveling faster than 1300 miles per second; the second more than 1100 miles per second.

NASA's models predict that the CMEs will impact both Earth and Mars, as well as pass by several NASA spacecraft.


ETA: Link
Jax2Chl  [Team Member]
3/8/2012 9:20:44 AM
I don't know if it is related (probably not) but I tried to pull up the National Weather Service Radar image from Greer, SC this morning as I often do but instead of getting the image there was the following message...

"Radar data are temporarily unavailable for this location. For additional information, please see the latest "Radar Status Message:"

When I clicked on the link for the Radar Status Message I received this...

"000
NOUS62 KGSP 072014
FTMGSP
Message Date: Mar 07 2012 20:14:37

THE KGSP WEATHER RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL 3/8/12 1700Z DUE TO RECEIVER
FAILURE. LEE"

Rut Roh What a coincidence.... I hope
mylt1  [Member]
3/8/2012 11:59:18 AM
Originally Posted By Jax2Chl:
I don't know if it is related (probably not) but I tried to pull up the National Weather Service Radar image from Greer, SC this morning as I often do but instead of getting the image there was the following message...

"Radar data are temporarily unavailable for this location. For additional information, please see the latest "Radar Status Message:"

When I clicked on the link for the Radar Status Message I received this...

"000
NOUS62 KGSP 072014
FTMGSP
Message Date: Mar 07 2012 20:14:37

THE KGSP WEATHER RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL 3/8/12 1700Z DUE TO RECEIVER
FAILURE. LEE"

Rut Roh What a coincidence.... I hope


that happens all the time with the NOAA radars, nothing new.