Archived Posts » 59,726,163
The economy in a nut shell
6/11/2012 10:55:09 AM
I stole this from another forum, I like the way it's worded and thought you might too.
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The problem here is more than a monetary expansion factor working in reverse crunch down mode in a temporary dip down. It is also psychological.
People feel insecure, and for good reason. There is little financial security.
Job security has been trashed for many people - white collar managers to blue collar assemblers. Financial security has been badly damaged. People don't trust the currency itself, they don't trust the banks, or Wall Street.
Rates of return have been artificially depressed, bond holders have been stepped on, investors have had their money taken (ask Gerald Celente). It seems to be a world where there is no longer any pretense of the rule of law, of the upholding of ethics. Even the very statistics used to measure the situation have been distorted so as to mislead, and the public knows this too, either instinctively or cognitively.
Our current leaders in government tells us that unaffordable prices for energy are a good thing, that we need to feel pain in order to be forced to do things we otherwise would not do voluntarily. Those same leaders also have other mechanisms for making us do things we don't want to do - rules, regulations, taxes, penalties, and a rapidly expanding police state to enforce all of that. The public response is to hold back in reserve against these.
Our government manipulated the housing market, forcing banks to expand to unqualified buyers with taxpayer guarantees. Many people have been burned, believing the false assurances that housing was a sure thing, your best lifetime investment. Those people, and the others who have seen what happened to them will not forget easily. Once burned.....
Our world looks increasingly insecure and hostile, despite an ever expanding and ever expensive American Global Presence for Good. Our government deficits diminish the formerly AAA rating of US Government credit, and threaten the integrity of the currency itself, inflating prices of nearly everything with a fairly stable technology of production.
Instinctively, on many levels, Americans see many unsustainable trends, any of which could be the gear in the social machine that fractures and jams the rest of the workings. This is a generational turning, and it will not go away. I have talked to multiple people who know a real mess is coming. These are not senior citizens. Some are relatively young. But they all talk like my grandfather, or father might have talked at the time of the Great Depression. They talk of thrift, of paying down debt, of preparing for a bad period.
This is not the talk of boom years that will continue forever, of unending debt offset by ballooning real estate prices. It is the psychology of a more compact economy, one which is more conservative, chastened, cautious, balanced, based upon personal experience, not the history of another generation.
You won't see this psychological sea change looking at cooked economic statistics, unless perhaps you are looking for it. And clearly, the policy makers in charge have not been looking for it. In fact, it appears as if they have been not looking for it, or perhaps looking to not find it.
One of the characteristics of a market bottom is that nearly everyone is as pessimistic as they can be (otherwise things can get worse and you don't have a market bottom yet). So, perhaps we will see things correct themselves. But I doubt it, absent technological and political game-changers.
For the tall dark tree of psychological gloom which casts this long shadow has structural roots. Energy has been deliberately made too costly. Resources are too scarce to support the appetite of an ever expanding world population, many of whom are moving from third world resource consumption to 21st century resource consumption levels. Taxes are too high, yet because government's appetite is even more outrageous, the government deficits and debt are staggering. Our burden as world policeman has become unsustainable, and yet we face a growing series of external threats. Numerous issues, from a rotting infrastructure, to social rot remain simply not dealt with. Detroit anyone?
And the very engine that drives the empire, capitalism, has been felled like Gulliver, the victim of a thousand tiny cuts, a regulation here, a tax there, a tariff here, a lawsuit there and all the while the man who presides over this sad process stands, his arms folded, his chin high in the air, a sociopathic grin of self-satisfaction on his face.
Historians have had centuries to analyze and debate the fall of the Roman Empire, especially its root cause or causes. We look to observe a replay of that period firsthand, and soon if things are not objectively and maturely evaluated, analyzed, and dealt with. Sadly, there is little sign of any of this on the horizon.
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
The problem here is more than a monetary expansion factor working in reverse crunch down mode in a temporary dip down. It is also psychological.
People feel insecure, and for good reason. There is little financial security.
Job security has been trashed for many people - white collar managers to blue collar assemblers. Financial security has been badly damaged. People don't trust the currency itself, they don't trust the banks, or Wall Street.
Rates of return have been artificially depressed, bond holders have been stepped on, investors have had their money taken (ask Gerald Celente). It seems to be a world where there is no longer any pretense of the rule of law, of the upholding of ethics. Even the very statistics used to measure the situation have been distorted so as to mislead, and the public knows this too, either instinctively or cognitively.
Our current leaders in government tells us that unaffordable prices for energy are a good thing, that we need to feel pain in order to be forced to do things we otherwise would not do voluntarily. Those same leaders also have other mechanisms for making us do things we don't want to do - rules, regulations, taxes, penalties, and a rapidly expanding police state to enforce all of that. The public response is to hold back in reserve against these.
Our government manipulated the housing market, forcing banks to expand to unqualified buyers with taxpayer guarantees. Many people have been burned, believing the false assurances that housing was a sure thing, your best lifetime investment. Those people, and the others who have seen what happened to them will not forget easily. Once burned.....
Our world looks increasingly insecure and hostile, despite an ever expanding and ever expensive American Global Presence for Good. Our government deficits diminish the formerly AAA rating of US Government credit, and threaten the integrity of the currency itself, inflating prices of nearly everything with a fairly stable technology of production.
Instinctively, on many levels, Americans see many unsustainable trends, any of which could be the gear in the social machine that fractures and jams the rest of the workings. This is a generational turning, and it will not go away. I have talked to multiple people who know a real mess is coming. These are not senior citizens. Some are relatively young. But they all talk like my grandfather, or father might have talked at the time of the Great Depression. They talk of thrift, of paying down debt, of preparing for a bad period.
This is not the talk of boom years that will continue forever, of unending debt offset by ballooning real estate prices. It is the psychology of a more compact economy, one which is more conservative, chastened, cautious, balanced, based upon personal experience, not the history of another generation.
You won't see this psychological sea change looking at cooked economic statistics, unless perhaps you are looking for it. And clearly, the policy makers in charge have not been looking for it. In fact, it appears as if they have been not looking for it, or perhaps looking to not find it.
One of the characteristics of a market bottom is that nearly everyone is as pessimistic as they can be (otherwise things can get worse and you don't have a market bottom yet). So, perhaps we will see things correct themselves. But I doubt it, absent technological and political game-changers.
For the tall dark tree of psychological gloom which casts this long shadow has structural roots. Energy has been deliberately made too costly. Resources are too scarce to support the appetite of an ever expanding world population, many of whom are moving from third world resource consumption to 21st century resource consumption levels. Taxes are too high, yet because government's appetite is even more outrageous, the government deficits and debt are staggering. Our burden as world policeman has become unsustainable, and yet we face a growing series of external threats. Numerous issues, from a rotting infrastructure, to social rot remain simply not dealt with. Detroit anyone?
And the very engine that drives the empire, capitalism, has been felled like Gulliver, the victim of a thousand tiny cuts, a regulation here, a tax there, a tariff here, a lawsuit there and all the while the man who presides over this sad process stands, his arms folded, his chin high in the air, a sociopathic grin of self-satisfaction on his face.
Historians have had centuries to analyze and debate the fall of the Roman Empire, especially its root cause or causes. We look to observe a replay of that period firsthand, and soon if things are not objectively and maturely evaluated, analyzed, and dealt with. Sadly, there is little sign of any of this on the horizon.
6/12/2012 9:23:27 PM
That piece pretty much sums it up.
6/12/2012 11:09:14 PM
I was with it until the stuff at the end. This is, as the author correctly identifies, a systemic problem, many years in the making. It wasn't created in January 2009, when Obama got elected. He may be smug, he may be wrong, he may not be doing anything to fix the problem. But it blurs the real issue when anyone thinks the solution is to just vote Republican. Or Democrat. Or Whatever. The bosses, whatever their political party, are cowardly shitheels. There is no solution coming from that quarter.
6/12/2012 11:13:07 PM
I just think it is funny that most people are still looking to gov't to come up with
some sort of solution while forgetting they helped to get us here.
some sort of solution while forgetting they helped to get us here.
6/12/2012 11:23:18 PM
Originally Posted By BangStick1:
I just think it is funny that most people are still looking to gov't to come up with
some sort of solution while forgetting they helped to get us here.
I just think it is funny that most people are still looking to gov't to come up with
some sort of solution while forgetting they helped to get us here.
it's like asking a burglar to help you secure your house.
6/12/2012 11:48:16 PM
Originally Posted By Recusance:
it's like asking a burglar to help you secure your house.
Originally Posted By BangStick1:
I just think it is funny that most people are still looking to gov't to come up with
some sort of solution while forgetting they helped to get us here.
I just think it is funny that most people are still looking to gov't to come up with
some sort of solution while forgetting they helped to get us here.
it's like asking a burglar to help you secure your house.
QFT.
I recently took an outdoor wilderness skill class (rub sticks to make fire type class) and most the students were in their 20's. They have no faith in the economy improving or dot gov rescuing anyone. They spent their money to develop real life wilderness skills as opposed to going to college and getting into debt (school loans) so they can flip burgers for forty years just to pay off those loans.
6/13/2012 12:34:55 AM
new world order man. Europe will have to unite as a single economy and the US will follow. If you think about it, it doesn't seem far fetched. I wonder if decisions are being made on purpose in order to speed up the process? Just a thought.
6/13/2012 2:34:58 AM
Your worries are misplaced. The private sector is doing fine. What we need is to spend another half trillion dollars or so to protect fire, police, and teacher jobs. Don't you understand that all job creation stems from government action? Since the government prints money, it is, of course, the source of all wealth.
/sarcasm off
There are people out there who actually believe this.
/sarcasm off
There are people out there who actually believe this.
6/13/2012 3:36:49 AM
Originally Posted By BangStick1:
I just think it is funny that most people are still looking to gov't to come up with
some sort of solution while forgetting they helped to get us here.
I just think it is funny that most people are still looking to gov't to come up with
some sort of solution while forgetting they helped to get us here.
This is a thorny and not simple issue. The government is like a large, smelly, dangerous bear in a very dirty room. The bear ain't gonna clean the room, but without some cooperation from the bear, neither are you.
That's the essence of the tea party movement. They're out there yelling for the bear to get the fuck out of the way so that they can clean their own room.
But at some point, the bear has to be, somehow, convinced to get the fuck out of the way or the room will just get dirtier and dirtier until at some point there's a garbage fire and the whole place goes up. Obama and his crew are not gonna get the fuck out of the way. Not even a little bit so we can clean up around the edges. They're just gonna sit there in the middle, shitting and shedding and generally making the place dirtier by the day until they're convinced to go or the whole place goes up in a garbage fire.
ETA to admit that Obama and his crew–– okay, Obama–– his crew have been around since Christ was a corporal–– is only the latest and most egregious offender in a long line of offenders who started with Wilson, got supercharged with FDR, and ended up with W destroying capitalism in order to save it.
6/13/2012 3:49:17 AM
Greatest transferance of wealth in the history of mankind. Even bigger than the Stalin purges in the 30s when he destroyed the middle class in Russia and put several million dudes in the ground as a side note. All that cash went somewhere and it sure was not the rich, upper,middle ,lower middle class or the poor. My guess is the ulta rich say a few thousand people world wide. Just the nature of the beast. The middle class was getting way to much economic power from the 50s threw the 90s and even into the early 2000s. Like owning their on homes, putting kids threw college, retirement savings, and just a boat load of buying power in that pocket world wide. Can't let that monkey out of the trees. So where did all that money go no one seems to know. Now I will take the tin foil off.
6/13/2012 9:18:57 AM
I was with it until the stuff at the end. This is, as the author correctly identifies, a systemic problem, many years in the making. It wasn't created in January 2009, when Obama got elected. He may be smug, he may be wrong, he may not be doing anything to fix the problem. But it blurs the real issue when anyone thinks the solution is to just vote Republican. Or Democrat. Or Whatever. The bosses, whatever their political party, are cowardly shitheels. There is no solution coming from that quarter
The sooner we all understand this and get away from the R vs D debate the sooner we will solve our problems. It's not WHO is running the machine, it is the machine that is the problem. The government can not create private sector jobs, it can only create a condition that is favorable to the creation of jobs or a condition that is unfavorable. We have now reached a point where we have a crony capitalism and the opportunities for creating wealth are limited to those in power. When the government is creating a condition that favors one business over another it becomes corruption. When our elected officials are exempt from insider trading regulations, it only stands to reason, it will be abused. When our government has the power and ability to manipulate the price of gold in an effort to protect this fiat currency it is game set and match. IMO, it is too late and we will need a complete collapse of the system in order to rebuild it. Hopefully it is rebuilt under the original design but with the mentality I see in society and the inability to recognize the true culprit in our demise, we will once again rely on the same ones/ideology that created this mess.
6/13/2012 9:24:15 AM
Originally Posted By BangStick1:
I just think it is funny that most people are still looking to gov't to come up with
some sort of solution while forgetting they helped to get us here.
I just think it is funny that most people are still looking to gov't to come up with
some sort of solution while forgetting they helped to get us here.
I disagree. The Tea party folks are asking the .gov to get the hell out of the way, lower or remove the idiotic regulations, and stop with the spending. All 3 are needed for us to grow and improve.
It comes down to simply removing the ticks.
TXL
6/13/2012 10:13:59 AM
Europe has a unified economy that is failing. That will keep the dollar as the standard and will not cause a one world monetary system. The only way is they see the dollar as the only stable currency and it's all good for us. As any person with a maxed credit card, our highly debted nation will struggle for some time. It's still half good as it's made most people think before they spend.
